A claim about Quenchly
Three new plans rows at the increase date; annual share of activations spiking the month before; requested cancels running at least 1.2 times the trailing quarter's count for the quarter that follows.
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as of moments ago
SELECT id, name, seat_price_usd_month, seat_price_usd_year
FROM plans
ORDER BY name, seat_price_usd_month;| id | name | seat_price_usd_month | seat_price_usd_year |
|---|---|---|---|
| business | business | 199 | 1990 |
| business-v2 | business | 219 | 2190 |
| pro | pro | 99 | 990 |
| pro-v2 | pro | 109 | 1090 |
| starter | starter | 49 | 490 |
| starter-v2 | starter | 54 | 540 |
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SELECT strftime('%Y-%m', e.at) AS month,
SUM(e.kind = 'activate') AS activations,
ROUND(100.0 * SUM(e.kind = 'activate' AND s.billing = 'annual')
/ NULLIF(SUM(e.kind = 'activate'), 0)) AS annual_pct,
SUM(e.kind = 'cancel' AND e.reason = 'requested') AS requested_cancels,
SUM(e.kind = 'plan_change' AND e.plan_id LIKE '%-v2') AS migrations_to_new_price
FROM subscription_events e
JOIN subscriptions s ON s.id = e.subscription_id
GROUP BY 1
ORDER BY 1;| month | activations | annual_pct | requested_cancels | migrations_to_new_price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01 | 29 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-02 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 0 |
| 2023-03 | 31 | 48 | 2 | 0 |
| 2023-04 | 36 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
| 2023-05 | 33 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
| 2023-06 | 30 | 33 | 2 | 0 |
| 2023-07 | 44 | 45 | 4 | 0 |
| 2023-08 | 25 | 56 | 3 | 0 |
| 2023-09 | 44 | 43 | 7 | 0 |
| 2023-10 | 38 | 53 | 6 | 0 |
| 2023-11 | 36 | 39 | 5 | 0 |
| 2023-12 | 35 | 54 | 6 | 0 |
| 2024-01 | 35 | 51 | 7 | 0 |
| 2024-02 | 52 | 60 | 7 | 0 |
| 2024-03 | 38 | 45 | 10 | 0 |
| 2024-04 | 36 | 61 | 5 | 0 |
| 2024-05 | 39 | 31 | 4 | 0 |
| 2024-06 | 55 | 53 | 11 | 0 |
| 2024-07 | 66 | 48 | 4 | 0 |
| 2024-08 | 51 | 49 | 10 | 0 |
| 2024-09 | 53 | 38 | 10 | 0 |
| 2024-10 | 72 | 47 | 13 | 0 |
| 2024-11 | 54 | 39 | 10 | 0 |
| 2024-12 | 50 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 2025-01 | 42 | 38 | 18 | 384 |
| 2025-02 | 51 | 45 | 23 | 38 |
| 2025-03 | 47 | 30 | 21 | 35 |
| 2025-04 | 43 | 35 | 7 | 47 |
| 2025-05 | 52 | 46 | 9 | 25 |
| 2025-06 | 55 | 45 | 9 | 39 |
| 2025-07 | 67 | 40 | 21 | 53 |
| 2025-08 | 37 | 59 | 22 | 38 |
| 2025-09 | 66 | 39 | 17 | 42 |
| 2025-10 | 48 | 44 | 21 | 55 |
| 2025-11 | 41 | 51 | 17 | 33 |
| 2025-12 | 32 | 44 | 18 | 54 |
| 2026-01 | 32 | 44 | 20 | 2 |
| 2026-02 | 39 | 44 | 19 | 12 |
| 2026-03 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 10 |
| 2026-04 | 48 | 52 | 15 | 11 |
| 2026-05 | 55 | 42 | 18 | 12 |
| 2026-06 | 51 | 43 | 25 | 14 |
| 2026-07 | 57 | 51 | 21 | 10 |
| 2026-08 | 42 | 52 | 18 | 9 |
| 2026-09 | 19 | 47 | 10 | 2 |
holds on the current window
Demo data usually describes a business where nothing ever happened. Quenchly’s business made a decision: two years in, it raised list prices by about ten percent. The price book gained new rows with the same plan names, the way a billing provider creates new price objects instead of editing old ones. Monthly subscribers moved to the new price at their next renewal; annual subscribers kept the old price until their anniversary. Customers who saw the announcement locked in annual plans the month before. Some left in the quarter after.
The plans table has six rows: the three originals, plus the same three names again with a -v2 suffix and prices about ten percent higher. In the monthly table, annual_pct jumps in
one month and returns to its usual mid-forties the month after. The
next month migrations_to_new_price spikes as monthly renewals move
over, then tails off across the following year as annual renewals
come due. requested_cancels runs above its trailing level for about
a quarter after the increase and settles back.
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