A claim about Overwater

Spring outsells winter by more than half again. February sags.

In every spring after the first full year, March to May daily revenue is at least 1.6 times the preceding December to February; the first year is the launch ramp and is flatter. February orders run at most 0.8 times the monthly average.

holds on the current window

as of 422 days ago

Monthly sales seasonality

SELECT strftime('%Y-%m', ordered_at)     AS month,
       COUNT(*)                           AS orders,
       ROUND(SUM(total_usd))              AS revenue,
       ROUND(AVG(total_usd), 2)           AS aov
FROM orders
GROUP BY 1
ORDER BY 1;

View data table

month	orders	revenue	aov
2023-06	24	1934	80.58
2023-07	45	3435	76.33
2023-08	57	7576	132.91
2023-09	53	5952	112.31
2023-10	81	8128	100.35
2023-11	200	22735	113.68
2023-12	260	28879	111.07
2024-01	70	6965	99.5
2024-02	68	7532	110.76
2024-03	404	46728	115.66
2024-04	545	62606	114.87
2024-05	605	63755	105.38
2024-06	252	27417	108.8
2024-07	153	17366	113.5
2024-08	153	17508	114.43
2024-09	213	24313	114.15
2024-10	256	29491	115.2
2024-11	642	78925	122.94
2024-12	1216	140454	115.5
2025-01	389	47540	122.21
2025-02	381	44516	116.84
2025-03	2928	372126	127.09
2025-04	3202	415287	129.7
2025-05	3234	424448	131.25
2025-06	1213	162665	134.1
2025-07	594	77788	130.96

holds on the current window

Spring over winter by year

WITH daily AS (
  SELECT date(ordered_at) AS day,
         CAST(strftime('%Y', ordered_at) AS INTEGER) AS year,
         CAST(strftime('%m', ordered_at) AS INTEGER) AS month,
         SUM(total_usd) AS revenue
  FROM orders GROUP BY 1
)
SELECT year,
       ROUND(AVG(CASE WHEN month IN (3, 4, 5)  THEN revenue END))  AS spring_daily_revenue,
       ROUND(AVG(CASE WHEN month IN (12, 1, 2) THEN revenue END))  AS winter_daily_revenue,
       ROUND(AVG(CASE WHEN month IN (3, 4, 5)  THEN revenue END)
           / AVG(CASE WHEN month IN (12, 1, 2) THEN revenue END), 2) AS spring_over_winter
FROM daily
GROUP BY year
ORDER BY year;

View data table

year	spring_daily_revenue	winter_daily_revenue	spring_over_winter
2023	null	932	null
2024	1881	1802	1.04
2025	13172	1560	8.44

holds on the current window

House plants are a spring purchase and a gift purchase. Overwater’s acquisition and repeat-visit rates follow a two-peak year. March to May is the main peak. November and December add a smaller gifting bump, and January and February compound into the trough. Plant SKUs spike in spring and gift-friendly accessories in December. The product mix moves with the volume. On top of that the business drifts, so year two is not year one scaled.

What you should see

A monthly series with a visible hump every spring and a dip every February. The spring_over_winter ratio is above 1.6 in every full year after the first. In the launch year the store is still ramping, so its first spring is compared with a winter when it barely existed and the ratio is close to 1. The later peaks are not the same height from year to year. That is the business drifting.

Run it yourself

SQLite one file, ready to query CSV tar.gz, one file per table